Brexit and the housing market

A research report suggests that the private rented sector is most at risk as a consequence of Brexit, and that any downturn in the housing market is likely to be felt most in the border areas of Northern Ireland, particularly those areas with large numbers of migrants working in agri-food businesses.

Amid continued uncertainty around the UK’s exit from the European Union a report from RSM suggests potential for Brexit to affect the housing market in Northern Ireland through several factors. The report was commissioned by the Housing Executive in an attempt to better understand the possible impacts Brexit may have on the local housing market. It looks at the following areas

• The Northern Ireland Housing Market
• Migration and cross-border work
• Analysis of social housing stock in border areas
• Views of housing providers, including private agents, on the impact of Brexit.

Private rented sector likely to be most impacted

Some of the most significant impacts may be felt in the private rented sector, with potential for an exodus in border areas if European tenants decide to leave Northern Ireland.  The majority of migrants in Northern Ireland live in private rented housing, with only 4% of social lettings last year made to properties with a head of household from a EU27 country.

The prospect of voids in areas with high levels of student housing is also raised by the report, which points out the difficulties that both Queen’s University and the University of Ulster may have in continuing to attract large numbers of students from within the European Union.

Potential for negative consequences for property market

The report concludes that any economic shock as a result of Brexit could lead to significant downward pressure on property prices, pointing out that a negative Brexit outcome could have greater consequences for the property market in Northern Ireland, which is traditionally more volatile than those in Great Britain.